No bugs were harmed in the media reporting of infested trains Bad Science Science The Guardian

The total were all really specific and really frightening. "Two thousand bugs receiving a float in each sight compartment," pronounced the Daily Mail. "Cockroaches cluster on trains," groaned the Telegraph. "Commuters share trains with 1,000 cockroaches, 200 bedbugs and 200 fleas," pronounced the Evening Standard.

These total all receptive to advice a small bit on the high side. Where did they come from? "Staff at Rentokil sprayed bomb via the carriages of a sight and a train and afterwards counted the bodies of insects," pronounced the Standard. It quoted a Rentokil spokesman: "The train we complicated was inside of the M25."

But Transport for London says it has had no hit with Rentokil, and that no such investigate has been finished on the vehicles. I asked Rentokil for some-more details.

After a bit of prodding, the PR company, Brands2Life, explained: no buses or trains were studied.

How did people get the wrong finish of the stick? I have no approach of knowing, as Brands2Life and Rentokil both declined to show me what they had sent to reporters but, in any case, discordant to what was pronounced earlier, these numbers did not come from measurements and counts – they are formed on a "theoretical model".

Models are handy. They"re a make-believe of reality, formed on a array of assumptions. Rentokil"s indication for the series of bugs on trains and buses done a little engaging assumptions, and you will have your own perspective on either they have for a in accord with estimation of the genuine world.

It assumed, for example, that the railway carriage or train was left in isolation. It insincere this carriage was willingly furnished with a abundant food supply. It insincere that the comparative measure of masculine to womanlike bugs was ideally optimal for breeding.

It insincere (surprisingly for any one concerned in modelling populations – surprisingly for anyone, really) that the race of bugs would be left wholly unchecked, with no outmost factors to carry out the mankind rate.

It insincere that the siding or garage was tranquil at a consistent heat all day and night, with no extremes. It insincere there were no trampling commuters, no vicious opening cleaners, no anything. In fact, it insincere there was no cleaning, ever, and no passengers, ever. This was the indication of insect populations on commuter vehicles.

You will have your own perspective on either you could certitude an organization that creates assumptions similar to these in calculating approximately the normal race of bugs. But it"s someway indecorous that Rentokil, a association with £2.36bn in income and a 54% enlarge in increase in 2009 to £166m, and staid to compensate £90m in bonuses to the tip 3 executives, feels the need to have everybody fearful of open ride on a PR whim. There is additionally the nauseous thought that Rentokil will do some-more commercial operation if it can have everybody frightened of bugs on the bus.

And on 2 March, the day prior to the cockroach press release, Rentokil voiced the singular greatest ever stipulate in the story of the business: £200m over five years with London Underground.